Let it Ride!

The farm called. It said "You won't put me on the Skins again... you won't do it..." Unfortunately, I did not have the entire farm on Your Washington Redskins last week, but if I did I think we can all agree that there was some fairly compelling evidence to suggest that investing in them again this week might be something to look into.

Let's consider what a reasonable spread for this game might be. Skins are coming off three straight wins, including most recently a 26-24 win over the Dallas Cowboys, the week 4 consensus best team in the league, on the road. Jason Campbell has a QB rating of 102 (4th in the league). Santana Moss has 421 receiving yards (2nd). Clinton Portis has 369 rushing yards (tie 4th). Clearly we are firing on all cylinders offensively. On top of that, we own the league's leading turnover ratio of +6, without a single offensive turnover.

That being said, we are going into Philadelphia against a tough Eagles team. My gut tells me the spread should be somewhere in the +2.5-3 range. This is with the acknowledgement that the Skins have won 2 of 3 in the Linc (couldn't be a softer name). This is also with the knowledge that there's a chance Brian Westbrook may not play (as of today, Tuesday, it looks like at the very least he will sit out of practice tomorrow), along with right guard Shaun Andrews who will see a back specialist this week. I'm not saying the Skins should be favored, but as I argued last week, it's a division game between two good teams. Should be a close one, right?

Vegas says Skins +6.5.

Really? Maybe I've been watching a different league the past few weeks. Didn't the Cowboys light up the Eagles 41-37 on Monday Night Football two weeks ago? Didn't the Eagles get three scores in that game from Brian Westbrook, who seems to be the key to this team's success? Yes, this all happened. Marion Barber had 114 total yards in the game and two touchdowns. Was he even on the field against the Redskins last week?

The common opponent argument doesn't do much for me usually, but it tells me a fair amount about where Philly is right now. After putting 37 points on the board, they stumbled out of the gate last week and dropped a tough one to Chicago. Clearly it isn't the Philly offense we're supposed to be worried about here, particularly with the aforementioned injuries.

Is it the defense? I have to admit, they have looked fairly solid for most of the year. They are 3rd in team defense. But wait. What's this? Did Kyle Orton throw for three TDs last week? He sure did.

It is probably too much to ask for the Skins to win back to back division games on the road against two very solid teams. It is also probably too much to expect that somehow we're going to go another game without a turnover or another game with a 100 yard rusher and 100 yard receiver.

All I know is, if they do, it will probably be too much to ask for a seat on the ol' wagon. They're going fast.

Any Given Sunday

Alright, I'll just come out and say it. The Cowboys have a good team this year. Most analysts have them pegged as the best team in the league. Aside from a pretty wild game against Philly, they have cruised, largely due to their control of the line of scrimmage. According to Vegas on tuesday, the cowgirls are a lock to cruise to 4-0 behind a solid 11.5 point victory.

Hmm... 11.5 points huh? I dunno, Vegas. I've been wrong before (how bout those Eagles huh?), but 11.5 points is pretty steep. Let's look at the facts.

1. Since 2001, 'Skins Cowboys games have had a margin of victory over 7 points just 4 times out of 14 matchups. Of those 4, 3 happened in late December in DC (2 of which ultimately vaulted the 'Skins into the playoffs). So just once since 2001 has there been a double digit meeting between his two teams (Sept 17, 2006 Dallas 27 - 0 Skins).
2. One of the biggest concerns with this team is that it has a young coach and a new system. Although there is some logic to this argument, the 2008 Skins team, thus far, seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Last year's Skins, as Tony Kornheiser so eloquently put it, "had more suits on the sidelines than a funeral." Al Saunders' much talked about playbook was allegedly 700 pages, and for much of the season the team didn't live up to the billing of Saunders' former offensive teams. This year, through 3 games mind you, the offense seems to have come alive. Jason Campbell seems to have a grasp on the offense (more on him later), Moss and Portis both have 3 tds through 3 games, and the offense has yet to turnover the ball. It's just a gut feeling, but I feel like I speak for most of SkinsNation when I say that they really seem to understand what Zorn is trying to do.
3. One of the particularly traumatic close games of this series was last year's tough loss in Dallas. As you will recall, TO torched us for all of little d's 4 TDS, but somehow the Skins were able to hang around and make a run at it late. Campbell put together a solid drive, but just as we entered the red zone he threw a pick. Ballgame. 28-23. This came right after the Skins struggled to put the Eagles away at home, giving up 13 points in the final 3 minutes. The very next week in Tampa, again they had an opportunity to complete a comeback late in the 4th, but Campbell again threw a pick in the endzone. The last two games have seen similarly close games in the 4th quarter. However, instead of turning the ball over right as we looked on the verge of a big win, Campbell made two big plays (bomb to Moss, WR screen again to Moss). I don't know that you can single-out Campbell as the reason we won both of the last two games, but he certainly didn't contribute to a tough loss, and more importantly, he is a catalyst on a team learning to finish games.
4. The defense is making plays. Somehow we lead the league right now with a +5 turnover ratio. Granted, Dallas has a large offensive line, but Romo is not invincible, he's thrown 3 picks in 3 games. On top of that, his WRs are banged up. TO has been very quiet, and Springs is fired up to take him out of the game. Certainly stopping the Dallas offense is a big task, but I think we're gonna make some noise.

Above everything else, this is a rivalry game. Despite what my heart and my homer mentality tells me, it is going to be very tough to go into Dallas, potentially in our last game there ever (Playoffs???), and come away with a W. My point is, it's going to be much closer than Vegas and a lot of other experts think.

Why? Because we have a pretty good team this year too.

GO SKINS!!!

Broken Clocks and Blind Squirrels

One of the most undervalued perks of moving into a new place is receiving mail intended for the former tenants. Thus far, the most valued publication to arrive at our new home is a Sports Illustrated. Although certainly SI has fallen off of the glory days of the mid-90's, it still occasionally pumps out some quality content. Due to the timing of my recent move, we were able to grab the second most readable annual issue of SI, the NFL Preview. Little did I know that by choosing to drag this sports periodical into the bathroom that I was setting myself on an unexpected tailspin of confusion and frustration.

As I sat down on the toilet, I immediately flipped to the section outlining how the season will progress. Which teams will win their divisions, who will capture the wild card, how the playoffs will unfold, and who will triumphantly hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Tampa. With prognostications like this, its a wonder they even play out the season. I glanced at the bottom of the page, which read "Pats 26 - Eagles 23." "This can't be right," I thought, and I flipped to the front page wondering why I had been sent an SI from 2005. Sure enough, underneath promises of articles on the Beijing Olympics, was a picture of a happily smiling Donovan McNabb. They were indeed predicting the 2008 NFL season.

Certainly this was aged stock footage of Mr. McNabb since Philly hasn't had anything to smile about since 1983. If not for Dr. J, Philly fans over the age of 35 wouldn't have any "hey, remember the time we had a great team?" stories to share, but I digress. So, given that clearly this was probably not a recent photo, and that the Eagles aside from a 3 game winning streak to close out the season at .500 had little to be excited about, certainly this must be some kind of isolated occurrence of sports analysts making a terrible prediction, right?

Over the next couple weeks, as I planned out my fantasy football draft strategies, my bafflement continued. The ESPN NFL Preview saw 11 of 16 experts selected the Sneags as a wild card team, with one boldly selecting them as the NFC Champ (obviously then falling to San Diego. Nobody is absurd enough to pick McNabb & Co to win it all). At this point, I was able to confine my expressions of bewilderment in private. The straw that broke the camel's back however, was in the Sports Guy's most recent article were he was seen to claim, "It's New England, Jacksonville, Dallas and Philly, then San Diego and maybe Green Bay, and then everyone else." What??? This does not make sense!

I was particularly confused that not only would the experts be so convinced that the Eagles would be successful this year, but they managed to ignore the player on that team most obviously associated with above average achievement, Brian Westbrook. Aside from being a DC native, he was the team's leading rusher and leading receiver. Obviously, he was pivotal to their success.

On paper, their record last year with McNabb, 7-6, versus without, 1-2, seems to highlight the QB as the key player to this team. However, a closer look at the 2007 results tells a different story. The two games they lost without McNabb were at the Pats and at home against the Seahawks. Two games they likely would have lost anyways, but surprisingly with A.J. Feeley at the helm, and a healthy Westbrook lost only by a total of seven points.

Then take a gander at the one game Westbrook missed due to injury, during which the Eagles managed a meager 3 points in the Meadowlands. Granted, Buckhalter, Westbrook's backup, still cranked out 103 yards on the ground that day, but he failed to find the endzone, something Westbrook did 3 times the week previous.

Clearly, McNabb can hardly be considered worthy of such adulation, and the fact remains, a team with one offensive weapon, Westbrook, can hardly be a threat for the playoffs let alone the Super Bowl.

So, I began searching for alternative explanations. No stranger to conspiracy theories, I was able to cook one up. After the Madden Cover Jinx, the SI Cover jinx is the second most discussed performance influencing factor in sports. Similar to the Madden jinx, players have a knack for failing, in one way or another, after being recognized for their fleeting greatness. Notably, The Great One, Michael Jordan, was able to avoid this several times, but he seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Could this oft noted jinx be at play here? If LT turned down the cover of Madden to avoid the almost certain consequences, couldn't teams, wishing to avoid having a potentially successful season be ruined by having a star player on the cover of an increasingly irrelevant magazine, have turned down SI's offers for notoriety? Makes sense to this guy.

Perhaps McNabb, no stranger to curses, wanted to regain his mojo by facing his fears head on. I can't be certain. And, hey, broken clocks are right twice a day, and occasionally, blind squirrels do find nuts. But if your clock is broken or if you're blind and a squirrel, you're gonna have a ton of trouble reaching the Big Show.

And now... for something completely different.