Broken Clocks and Blind Squirrels

One of the most undervalued perks of moving into a new place is receiving mail intended for the former tenants. Thus far, the most valued publication to arrive at our new home is a Sports Illustrated. Although certainly SI has fallen off of the glory days of the mid-90's, it still occasionally pumps out some quality content. Due to the timing of my recent move, we were able to grab the second most readable annual issue of SI, the NFL Preview. Little did I know that by choosing to drag this sports periodical into the bathroom that I was setting myself on an unexpected tailspin of confusion and frustration.

As I sat down on the toilet, I immediately flipped to the section outlining how the season will progress. Which teams will win their divisions, who will capture the wild card, how the playoffs will unfold, and who will triumphantly hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Tampa. With prognostications like this, its a wonder they even play out the season. I glanced at the bottom of the page, which read "Pats 26 - Eagles 23." "This can't be right," I thought, and I flipped to the front page wondering why I had been sent an SI from 2005. Sure enough, underneath promises of articles on the Beijing Olympics, was a picture of a happily smiling Donovan McNabb. They were indeed predicting the 2008 NFL season.

Certainly this was aged stock footage of Mr. McNabb since Philly hasn't had anything to smile about since 1983. If not for Dr. J, Philly fans over the age of 35 wouldn't have any "hey, remember the time we had a great team?" stories to share, but I digress. So, given that clearly this was probably not a recent photo, and that the Eagles aside from a 3 game winning streak to close out the season at .500 had little to be excited about, certainly this must be some kind of isolated occurrence of sports analysts making a terrible prediction, right?

Over the next couple weeks, as I planned out my fantasy football draft strategies, my bafflement continued. The ESPN NFL Preview saw 11 of 16 experts selected the Sneags as a wild card team, with one boldly selecting them as the NFC Champ (obviously then falling to San Diego. Nobody is absurd enough to pick McNabb & Co to win it all). At this point, I was able to confine my expressions of bewilderment in private. The straw that broke the camel's back however, was in the Sports Guy's most recent article were he was seen to claim, "It's New England, Jacksonville, Dallas and Philly, then San Diego and maybe Green Bay, and then everyone else." What??? This does not make sense!

I was particularly confused that not only would the experts be so convinced that the Eagles would be successful this year, but they managed to ignore the player on that team most obviously associated with above average achievement, Brian Westbrook. Aside from being a DC native, he was the team's leading rusher and leading receiver. Obviously, he was pivotal to their success.

On paper, their record last year with McNabb, 7-6, versus without, 1-2, seems to highlight the QB as the key player to this team. However, a closer look at the 2007 results tells a different story. The two games they lost without McNabb were at the Pats and at home against the Seahawks. Two games they likely would have lost anyways, but surprisingly with A.J. Feeley at the helm, and a healthy Westbrook lost only by a total of seven points.

Then take a gander at the one game Westbrook missed due to injury, during which the Eagles managed a meager 3 points in the Meadowlands. Granted, Buckhalter, Westbrook's backup, still cranked out 103 yards on the ground that day, but he failed to find the endzone, something Westbrook did 3 times the week previous.

Clearly, McNabb can hardly be considered worthy of such adulation, and the fact remains, a team with one offensive weapon, Westbrook, can hardly be a threat for the playoffs let alone the Super Bowl.

So, I began searching for alternative explanations. No stranger to conspiracy theories, I was able to cook one up. After the Madden Cover Jinx, the SI Cover jinx is the second most discussed performance influencing factor in sports. Similar to the Madden jinx, players have a knack for failing, in one way or another, after being recognized for their fleeting greatness. Notably, The Great One, Michael Jordan, was able to avoid this several times, but he seems to be the exception rather than the rule. Could this oft noted jinx be at play here? If LT turned down the cover of Madden to avoid the almost certain consequences, couldn't teams, wishing to avoid having a potentially successful season be ruined by having a star player on the cover of an increasingly irrelevant magazine, have turned down SI's offers for notoriety? Makes sense to this guy.

Perhaps McNabb, no stranger to curses, wanted to regain his mojo by facing his fears head on. I can't be certain. And, hey, broken clocks are right twice a day, and occasionally, blind squirrels do find nuts. But if your clock is broken or if you're blind and a squirrel, you're gonna have a ton of trouble reaching the Big Show.

And now... for something completely different.